๐ Share this article A Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $436K on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Nicolรกs Maduro shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about whether someone profited from confidential information of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month surged in the hours before former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been seized. A particular user, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the first hours of Saturday, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity just before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate. Several of other traders also profited large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule presented on Monday aims to prohibit government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs. This sector were examined under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the prediction market arena. An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."