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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."